Web3 Pioneer Poised for Future Valuation Hikes |
 November 09, 2023
HUMBL, INC.
Industry: TechnologyPrice Target: $0.009
HUMBL, INC.Next-Gen Web 3 Pioneer Poised to Revolutionize Global Online AppsRob Goldman November 9, 2023 HUMBL, INC. (OTCPK - HMBL - $0.0011)Industry: Technology Price Target: $0.009 COMPANY SNAPSHOTHUMBL, Inc. offers a unique, next-gen Web3 technology platform. This offering provides verified users with a digital wallet and web platform designed for peer, corporate, and government transactions. HUMBL users are all verified to enhance the safety, trust, and quality of interactions and transactions on the web. The Company has core corporate, government, and consumer clients poised to serve as early adopters and drivers of HMBL’s technology. KEY STATISTICS
COMPANY INFORMATIONHUMBL, Inc. Web: www.HUMBL.com INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTSHMBL is the only publicly traded pure play diversified Web3 platform and apps provider. Industry estimates suggest that the segment will grow from $3.34B in 2022 to $49.1B in 2030, a 47% CAGR. This CAGR during this period is one of the fastest growing technology segments. The decentralized Web3, which is based on trust, verification, and interactivity across apps and transactions is poised to take over the current, flawed Web2 environment. Web2 is fraught with fraudulent accounts, users, bots, and fake ratings/reviews. HMBL’s revenue model includes multiple categories, multiple shots on goal, and the exponentiality of business across its businesses. These include public sector, commercial, and consumer segments. HMBL has already signed on a mid-sized municipality in California and the AFL, which is a comprehensive 5-year contract. Revenue for HMBL will be derived on a flat fee or percentage basis for including transactions, ticketing, registry, merchandise, etc. Our forecasts assume revenue will grow from $1.5M in 2023 to $17M in 2025, with operating profit in 2025, along with a potential uplist to a major exchange. Our 6-9 month-price target of $0.009 assumes 4.8x our 2025 revenue estimate. Additional upside via milestone achievement is in the cards on an ongoing basis during 2024 as well.
COMPANY OVERVIEWThe View from 30,000 Feet
This technology pioneer offers a next-gen Web3 technology platform that has no publicly-traded peer, based on our due diligence. HMBL provides a digital wallet and web platform designed for peer, corporate, and government digital transactions, based on verified user profiles. Thus, all HUMBL users are verified. This verification is a decentralized, blockchain-based Web3 feature which enhances the safety, trust, and the quality of user interactions and transactions on the web. This core feature is a key improvement over typical Web2 (current) infrastructures and processes. Although Web3 is in the early adoption phase, the Company already counts corporate, government, and consumer clients on its platform—and these categories represent billions in market opportunity. In the interim, we believe that these clients are poised to serve as early adopters and drivers of HMBL’s technology. Through the provision of a digital wallet and enviable verification and validation of its users and data, the HMBL revenue model is inherently actionable, and should grow exponentially as users utilize the platform and its broad array of applications. Moreover, the model business model has a symbiotic relationship with the revenue model, whereby users across its three silos (corporate, government, consumer) drive interactions and transactions across these categories. Web3 Snapshot According to an October 2023 article by highly regarded management firm McKinsey: “Web3 is a term used to describe the next iteration of the internet, one that is built on blockchain technology and is communally controlled by its users. [Web3]… elements of it are already in place—it will, in theory, signal a new era of the internet, one in which use and access are controlled by community-run networks rather than the current, centralized model in which a handful of corporations preside over Web2.” Cognitive Market Research published a report in 2023 on Web3 (also referred to as Web 3.0). Cognitive projects the size of the Web 3.0 market will leap from $3.34B in 2022 to $49.1B in 2030, a 46.7% CAGR. The Web 3.0 blockchain market is primarily driven by the benefits of decentralized systems to provide greater security, transparency, and privacy for users compared to traditional centralized systems. The ever-increasing adoption of AI (Artificial) and ML (Machine Learning) are helping lead broad organizational deployment. The HMBL Business Model At present, the Company is engaged in the tail end of its beta stages for core customers in all three of its client categories. On the government side, HMBL signed its first municipal agreement with a mid-sized county government in California. When fully launched in 2024, the county will offer its residents vastly improved efficacy of its digital services provisioning including documentation and data, and ease-of-use payment processing via the white labeled-HMBL digital wallet. On the corporate side, HMBL signed a 5-year deal with the Arena Football League (AFL) to facilitate targeted consumer mobile/web ticketing and other services leveraging the HMBL digital wallet and web platform. It should be noted that HMBL is focused on partnerships and marketing with professional sports leagues, teams and athletes, along with the availability of signed and other merchandise, representing a vast global market opportunity for leagues, teams, athletes, and fans. The Company is in the late innings of a consumer beta with its Pro+ users. Once fully launched, a “super wallet” for digital IDs, mobile payments, ticketing, merchandise, social media, financial products and other products/services will be available. Separately, the web platform offers a plethora of social media features and also featuring interactivity including chat, direct messages, videos, webinars, courses, etc. Valuation At present, we project $5.5M in revenue in 2024, and $17M in revenue for 2025, with top-line driven by both the public and private sectors. In addition to the strong prospective financial performance, we believe these shares, which boast a 100,000+ shareholder base, will enjoy a series of moves higher next year. Upside to these shares could be buoyed as technology and business milestones, including new consumer-centric corporate partnerships and public sector wins, are achieved. Our 6–9-month price target of $0.009 reflects a 4.8x Price/Sales multiple on projected 2025 revenue of $17M. We believe that the assigned multiple is quite reasonable considering the reach and impact of the next-gen technology, its lack of peers, and inherently high revenue growth rates. Moreover, this target price, while a major bump from current levels, remains below the stock’s 52-week high. We should note that we believe upside exists to both our forecasts and the market value. Therefore, as meaningful deployment and utilization occur, we would not be surprised to see HMBL’s shares exceed our current price target. This type of an event would likely accelerate management’s plan to uplist the shares to a major exchange. A WEB3 PRIMERBlockchain as the Core Blockchain technology forms the foundation of many Web3 applications, providing transparency, immutability, verification and trust. Blockchains are decentralized and distributed ledgers that store records of transactions or data across a network of nodes. A blockchain database stores data in chronologically consistent blocks that one can delete or modify only with consensus from the peer-to-peer network. It has built-in mechanisms that prevent unauthorized transaction entries and create consistency in the shared view of these transactions. As a result, it can be used to create an unalterable or immutable ledger for tracking all types of transactions. The Web3 market is still in its nascent stages, but it is growing rapidly as more developers and entrepreneurs explore the potential of decentralized applications (dApps) and blockchain-based technologies. Web3 is an umbrella term for technologies like blockchain that decentralize data ownership and control on the internet. Most internet applications in use today (Web2) are controlled by centralized entities that determine how they save and use end-user data. Moreover, Web2 is fraught with fraudulent accounts and ratings/reviews, bots and users. Instead of centralized management structures, Web3 (also called Web 3.0, decentralized web, or semantic web) technologies allow for community-driven projects without the need for intermediaries. And with high-end verification, the vagaries of Web2 essentially disappear, or are at least dramatically reduced. High Level Web2 Issues:
The first stage of the web, Web 1.0, was essentially read-only. The primary iteration today, Web 2.0, is went from read-write to read-write-interactive, but with limited true trust and security. With the aid AI, ML, and the blockchain, Web 3.0 is read-write-trust-verification. Accordingly, some of the web leaders of yesterday and today, may not be the leaders of tomorrow. Interestingly, Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN), while known primarily for its role specifically for cryptocurrency, provides an infrastructure, technology and apps that are at the forefront of the trust and verification world of Web 3.0. Web3 is billed as the next iteration of the internet in which users have greater control over their data and online interactions and transactions. With the advancement in blockchain, it is possible to create dApps that operate independently of centralized servers. Decentralized identity shifts the control of identity information back to the individual user. It uses globally unique identifiers associated with a decentralized identifier (DID) document. This document contains public keys, cryptographic material, and service endpoints related to identity. The technology uses selective disclosure to share specific identity attributes and minimize exposure to personally identifiable information (PII) during identity verification processes.
Migration and Evolution As blockchain became core infrastructure driving dApps across the early stages of the Web3 ecosystem, a bull rush of entities emerged offering Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Tokenization, including cryptocurrency Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs). The prevailing thought was that DeFi applications built on blockchain technology could potentially disrupt traditional financial systems by providing greater access and transparency for users. DeFi featured the broad use and trading of cryptocurrency on a global scale, as it offered the ability to invest, borrow, lend, trade, and take crypto assets permission without any hassle. In addition, the related concept of tokenization grew quickly as well. Tokenization.is the process of representing real-world or digital assets as digital tokens on a blockchain. Each token may represent a specific fraction or whole unit of the underlying asset, making it divisible and easily tradable. There are different token types in the virtual world, such as NFTs representing unique, indivisible assets that don’t allow fractal ownership. Unfortunately, many industry pundits and every day investors can attest to the fact that in hindsight, cryptocurrency moved too far too fast, in the absence of regulations and other factors. The concurrent swift rise and fall of many NFT values confirm this event. However, many of the core DeFi tenets are still valid today as is the utilization of NFTs and other blockchain-generated apps. Against this backdrop, and after learning from other firms’ missteps, most industry experts forecast substantial growth in Web3 market growth and broad application usage. Cognitive Market Research published a report in 2023 on Web3 (also referred to as Web 3.0). Cognitive projects the size of the Web 3.0 market will leap from $3.34B in 2022 to $49.1B in 2030, a 46.7% CAGR. Public sector organizations and corporations concerned about verification and trust of digital data and e-commerce transactions on the web are investing substantial sums to introduce Web3-based networks and applications. DeFi remains an important concept and is in wide use today and is poised to achieve broad financial product acceptance in conjunction with the next phase of adoption, beyond the early adopters. While it is unlikely to see a renewed Bored Ape NFT collection craze artificially driving NFT values, having truly verified NFT merchandise can result in an NFT-powered business model for collectors, sports and pop culture fans. Moreover, a plethora of apps in social media, content, social payments, verified profiles of influencers and others are poised to foster major consumer utilization growth as well on a peer-to-peer basis as well as through government agencies and corporations to execute trust in their transactions. HUMBL: THE NEXT MAJOR WEB PLAYERRome wasn’t built in a day. Of course, it took years for Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 to gain widespread adoption. Some of the Company’s early steps resulted in unsuccessful acquisitions resulting in less than favorable financings and future divestitures. Still, that is the past and aside from learning from mistakes (which is difficult to do), the HUMBL of today is far different from even a year ago. Poor performing assets have been divested and $28M worth of debt on the books has been retired. Moreover, substantial development progress has led to an enviable Web3 positioning with a strong infrastructure, an easy-to-use front-end, and a clever business model that has resulted in a major sports league relationship, a strong municipality relationship, and potential upside from a variety of sources. Perhaps that is why the Company has over 100,000 shareholders—a base any publicly traded company can only dream about. HUMBL Today
In keeping with industry standard KYC/KYB protocols, all HUMBL users have verified profiles to ensure authentication of users, transactions, interactions, advertising, ratings and reviews on the platform. With the HUMBL-provided digital wallet, HUMBL customers can or will be able to use and store digital verifiable credentials and transactions. Plus, the wallet is integrated with a number of other wallets or other sources such as MetaMask. HUMBL customers can use the web platform to search, discover and transact with each other, brands and corporations or government agencies in an authenticated format. The Company has two divisions and three revenue categories. The divisions are Consumer and Commercial, while we characterize the revenue categories as public sector, commercial, and consumer. The commercial division of HUMBL offers white label services to private and public sector clients that require digital wallets and web platforms. It is built on a trust architecture that offers real, verified users and digital transaction records. The consumer division of HUMBL focuses on a digital wallet and web platform that combines a search engine, social media, financial products, and marketplace. HUMBL’s public sector division has developed the first government-approved digital wallet for a municipality in California and aims to scale this solution to other cities, counties, states, and national governments. The revenue model for this is for the receipt of a flat fee, or percentage, on every transaction. The revenue model terms are expected to vary with each public sector. The current project is in the beta stage and will fully launch in 2024. HUMBL’s private sector division has secured a 5-year revenue-bearing contract with the Arena Football League for web, mobile, and ticketing services. This contract can be expanded to other stadiums, arenas, leagues, and teams. HUMBL receives a fee on every ticket sold by the AFL for the next five years and would pursue the same business model with other contract customers. The innovative nature of the consumer division of HUMBL is that it can drive revenue on a consumer basis, with corporate customers and government agencies. As a result, its current, and or planned revenue mix is derived across payments, ticketing, chat, merchandise and more, utilizing verified profiles with a digital wallet and web platform. Applications that can generate interactions include social media posts, direct messages, chat, webinars, livestream, video, and more. Revenue sources include social payments, ticketing, merchandise, etc. Plus, the revenue model includes transactional and subscription-based revenues (HUMBL Pro+). It should be noted that HUMBL has partnered with either athletes or teams from the AFL, UFC, NCAA, MLB, WNFC, World Surfing, World Rugby and more for authentic merchandise, social media and digital collectibles programs. Future partnerships with entities that boast substantial users or influencers with major followers are also in the cards, going forward. These types of relationships, much like the government or commercial customers, can drive revenue across the HUMBL platform. Multiple, Multi-Billion Dollar Market Opportunities
It should be noted that the total global market opportunity in terms of dollars asscoiated with wallets, sporting event ticketing and government-related transactions is $3.4T and over $650B in the US alone. Considering that the Company could generate a flat fee or percentage of the transactions. Valuation Upside In our view, the HMBL stock’s current entry point offers considerable upside from future milestone basis, in addition to the projected price target based on our financial model and its related metrics. Given the industry and technology, we believe that HMBL’s shares could trade higher and on heightened volume as milestones are achieved. These milestones include the achievement of development objectives such as an evolution from beta to the addition of new features or apps to a full launch in key customer categories. On a revenue model basis, HMBL is no one trick pony. On the contrary, the Company is built with multiple shots on goal, with multiple, exponential cross-revenue category opportunities, global opportunities, the addition of new public sector and sports league customers, and new partnerships representing millions of potential users. As the Company achieves execution or even progress on these fronts, investors should benefit. These shares could reach or rise above their 52-week high in response to the events outlined above. Plus, there are a series of “hidden assets” or bonuses associated with the potential upside inherent in HUMBL. First, the Company’s over 100,000 shareholders serve as a hidden asset for the Company as it relates to new features, apps, and a source from which to draw Pro+ subscribers. Second, HMBL is one of the most followed Web3 stocks in the world on social media. For example, the Company has over 52,000 followers on StockTwits and tens of thousands of comments on Yahoo!Finance. And this is just the beginning of the revenue phase. Separately, with plans to uplist to a major exchange, any steps to fulfill that objective would also have a positive impact on HMBL’s stock.HMBL EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP TEAMBrian Foote, Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer Brian Foote is the CEO and President of HUMBL, Inc. Brian received his B.A. from UCLA and his certification in blockchain and social media from MIT. He is a graduate of the Yale Global Executive Leadership Program in '22/'23. Mr. Foote has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business and routinely appears on the Opening Bell segment of FintechTV from the NYSE floor studios. Mr. Foote served as a keynote speaker for the World Blockchain Summit - 2023 in Singapore and has appeared as a speaker or panelist at other Web3 conferences and events around the world such as Art Basel, NFT London '22 and NFT.NYC '22 edition, among others. Jeffrey Hinshaw, Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Hinshaw has served as HUMBL’s Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, Corporate Secretary and a member of Board of Directors since November 24, 2020. Mr. Hinshaw received dual master’s degrees from SDSU with an MBA in Finance and a master’s in Biomechanics. Immediately prior to co-founding HUMBL LLC in May 2019, Mr. Hinshaw worked as an adjunct faculty at San Diego State University. From July 2017 to November 2017, Mr. Hinshaw worked as a business analyst at Sempra Energy. From February 2015 to November 2018, Mr. Hinshaw worked as a strategic advisor to Balance Tracking Systems. From August 2012 to May 2014, Mr. Hinshaw worked as a graduate researcher in biomechanics at San Diego State University. Peter Schulte, Director Peter Schulte has served as a member of HUMBL’s Board of Directors since September 24, 2021. Mr. Schulte holds the position of Managing Partner and Co-founder of private equity firm CM Equity Partners. His past experience includes public and private debt and equity financing and M&A at Salomon Brothers Inc. and large systems marketing at IBM’s Data Processing Division. Mr. Schulte has also established two successful publicly traded companies: ICF International and ATS Corporation. Mr. Schulte currently serves as a member of the Board of Directors at Black ICE Holdings, Citizant, Inc., and JANUS Research Group, Inc. among others. Mr. Schulte is a graduate of Harvard College (AB) and also holds a Master’s degree in Public and Private Management (MPPM) from Yale University. FINANCIALS SNAPSHOTGiven the major positive changes in the capital structure, we deem it instructive to first address these improvements. The Company signed a securities purchase agreement (“SPA”) with Pacific Lion LLC on October 3, 2023, that will provide the Company with $2,040,000 over the next six months. The first monthly payment of $300,000 has been made. This financing required the Company to designate a Preferred C Class, which management has since been filed. The terms of the Preferred C Class, among other things, not allow for a conversion into common shares for two years and will automatically convert at a 25% discount to the IPO price (or market price if no IPO), if the Company completes a public offering and is listed on a national exchange. The Company is prohibited from entering into any financing transactions with a new investor that has a variable discount rate. More terms and details of the Preferred C Class will be provided once the class is formally approved by the Secretary of State. This financing is intended to cover the Company’s operational and development needs until April 2024 when the Company expects to generate revenue from its contract with the AFL. No conversion into common shares for two years unless an uplisting to a national exchange occurs. Our Forecasts It should be noted that financials for 2022 should not be regarded as a guide for future performance as much of the source of business has been divested. Moreover, the operating models and interest expenses and other items will not be effective for the latter part of 2023 and going forward. Our current revenue forecasts assume $1.5M in sales for 2023, jumping to $5.5M in 2024 and $17M in 2025, with revenue led by the public sector business in the US and abroad. Our model assumes a 60% gross margin in 2023, with incremental gains occurring annually. For 2023, we project net income of $3.9M, derived primarily from the gain on asset sales. Still, our opex projections reflect reduced costs due to the divestitures of non-core businesses, leading to modest operating profit in 2025. The items below the operating line each year are subject to change due to market and economic conditions and we do not believe are germane to overall performance, given the substantial $28M debt retirement and other costs. We should note that our share count assumptions reflect a modest funding in 2024 and an up-list to a major exchange in 2025. The share count is not “normalized” for that event, but investors can assume a shift prior to such an event.
RISK FACTORSIn our view, the Company’s biggest risk is related to the timing and order of magnitude of peer interactions and overall transactions during the early stages of the Web3 platform deployment and government implementation. Other risks include the potential back end or front-end issues during the full scale launch and when faced with a substantial volume of interactions and transactions. Potential changes to core features, applications, content, style, or integration issues with financial execution and other partners may also serve as issues to the HMBL platform. Separately, future regulation of blockchain or other core tenets of Web3 technologies and features could occur, potentially impacting the growth of its utilization. We believe management is prepared for such an event and has gone to great lengths to ensure its KYC and KYB protocols can be scaled and modified, as needed. We do not believe that a direct competitor offering its current Web3 features exists at this time. However, competitive risks from multiple firms that are known for a small number of the HMBL features could surface due to lower pricing, more effective sales/marketing or brand name recognition, or greater perceived efficacy. The aforementioned risks could come from larger competitors, existing firms, or new entrants. Still, these future concerns are consistent with firms of HMBL’s size and standing. Moreover, we believe that HMBL’s seasoned management team is prepared to overcome these hurdles and generate significant user and top-line growth along with exponential corporate, government, and peers’ social media implementations. Volatility and liquidity are typical concerns for microcap stocks that trade on the over the counter (OTC) stock market. Although the Company has dramatically improved its capital structure via substantial debt reduction and a favorable funding program, management may seek to raise capital in an effort to fund corporate expansion and potential M&A. An overriding financial benefit as a public company is the favorable access to and the availability of capital to fund product launches, consistent marketing campaigns and other initiatives. Since the proceeds of any future funding would be used in large part to advance major business development and sales, we believe that any dilutive effect from such a funding could be offset by related increases in market value. CONCLUSIONHMBL is the only publicly traded pure play diversified Web3 platform and apps provider. Industry estimates suggest that the segment will grow from $3.34B in 2022 to $49.1B in 2030, a 47% CAGR. This CAGR during this period is one of the fastest growing technology segments. The decentralized Web3, which is based on trust, verification, and interactivity across apps and transactions is poised to take over the current, flawed Web2 environment. Web2 is fraught with fraudulent accounts, users, bots, and fake ratings/reviews. HMBL’s revenue model includes multiple categories, multiple shots on goal, and the exponentiality of business across its businesses. These include public sector, commercial, and consumer segments. HMBL has already signed on a mid-sized municipality in California and the AFL, which is a comprehensive 5-year contract. Revenue for HMBL will be derived on a flat fee or percentage basis for including transactions, ticketing, registry, merchandise, etc. Our forecasts assume revenue will grow from $1.5M in 2023 to $17M in 2025, with operating profit in 2025, along with a potential uplist to a major exchange. Our 6-9 month-price target of $0.009 assumes 4.8x our 2025 revenue estimate. Additional upside via milestone achievement is in the cards on an ongoing basis during 2024 as well.
RECENT TRADING HISTORY FOR HMBL(Source: www.StockCharts.com)
Senior Analyst: Robert Goldman Rob Goldman founded Goldman Small Cap Research in 2009 and has over 25 years of investment and company research experience as a senior research analyst and as a portfolio and mutual fund manager. During his tenure as a sell side analyst, Rob was a senior member of Piper Jaffray's Technology and Communications teams. Prior to joining Piper, Rob led Josephthal & Co.'s Washington-based Emerging Growth Research Group. In addition to his sell-side experience Rob served as Chief Investment Officer of a boutique investment management firm and Blue and White Investment Management, where he managed Small Cap Growth portfolios and The Blue and White Fund. Analyst Certification I, Robert Goldman, hereby certify that the view expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. 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California-based HUMBL, Inc. (OTCPK:HMBL) may emerge as one of the top-performing and most influential publicly-traded technology companies of 2024. There are a number of factors surrounding HMBL that has led us to this conclusion, namely positioning, and low relative valuation. Plus, we perceive management’s successful corporate refresh is a hidden feature that we believe the Street has overlooked. This refresh includes non-core business divestitures, a $28M debt retirement, and an improved capital structure. Thus, we believe that HMBL’s current share price and market cap represent a unique high upside stock for opportunistic investors.
This technology pioneer offers a next-gen Web3 technology platform that has no publicly-traded peer, based on our due diligence. HUMBL provides a digital wallet and web platform designed for peer, corporate, and government digital transactions, based on verified user profiles. 
