|Written by Rob Goldman|
In this week's The Goldman Guide we provide key insights and data on the market, what lies ahead, and the impact of the SIVB fallout on equities in the near term.
The Goldman Guide
INSIDE OUR 10 MIN PODCAST:
INDICES & CATALYSTS
When Bad News is Good
Well, that was ugly. The last two days of the trading were painful—especially for the Russell 2000 Index, which dropped 5.6% in just two days. I am sure you have read what happened, why, or how, and where some risks lie. I don’t want to re-hash these details for you. But I will provide high level info you can use today, tomorrow, and going forward, regarding interest rates and other issues. But don’t fret: Bad news is good news as you will see/hear ahead.
Meanwhile, why the Feds had to step in and take over Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ: SIVB) offers some lessons rarely spoken: Policy and Business Model Failures.
SIVB was a great business and appeared to operate in a clever, albeit entirely different model from traditional banks. In hindsight, the model was flawed. For that, founders and management are to blame. The model broke down in part because of federal economic and monetary policy. For that, the Biden Administration is to blame.
More on that later. Suffice it to say others will take up the slack for the king of venture debt and bank to the VC world and startup nation. So, all will be all right at the end of the day. In the meantime, we’ve got more speed bumps ahead. Prepare for a lot of finger-pointing as to who is next to fall or at risk, and which loss-making companies are enduring capital access issues.
Right now, you need to be in risk management mode, rather than in capital appreciation mode. That will come again soon enough. Inside we offer up ideas to get you through the potential lingering turmoil.
Have a good day!
The Market Today
AAII Sentiment Survey (figures rounded)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bearish go to 50%
How long are we going to endure a double whammy of interest rate hikes and SIVB fallout---and CPI?
Will a flight to quality or companies earning profit become accelerated?
Do small stocks in biotech and tech have significant cash access risk?
Why invest in financials right now?
Considering the market’s YTD performances, is all the bad news a future positive?
An Ugly Table…and Correction
The Stock Market: Regional Banks, Others
Public, Private Customers Lack Access to Cash
Biotech, Tech Firms Nationwide
Pressure on Federal Government: Bailout?
When Bad News is Good News
Thoughts on our ideas? Shoot me an email: [email protected].
1498 Reisterstown Road, Suite 286 Baltimore Maryland 21208 Phone: 410.609.7100
The Goldman Guide: Background:
Originally launched in May 2010, and re-introduced in January 2023 after a hiatus from 2016-2022, The Goldman Guide is a free weekly audio podcast and newsletter produced by Goldman Small Cap Research and is written by Founder Rob Goldman with contributions from the GSCR contributor team. This non-sponsored investment newsletter seeks to provide investors with market, economic, political and equity-specific insights via an action-oriented, straight to the point approach. No companies mentioned in this newsletter are current sponsored research clients of the Company or its parent, With key exceptions such as Top 50 cryptocurrencies, some of which are noted as current holdings of Founder Goldman, all companies or investment ideas mentioned in this audio podcast and companion publication are publicly traded stocks listed either on the NYSE or the NASDAQ. Goldman Small Cap Research leadership bios and experience can be found on our website: www.goldmanresearch.com .
This audio podcast and companion newsletter were prepared for informational purposes only. Goldman Small Cap Research, (a division of Two Triangle Consulting Group, LLC) produces non-sponsored and sponsored (paid) investment research. Goldman Small Cap Research is not affiliated in any way with Goldman Sachs & Co.
The Firm’s non-sponsored research publications category, Select Research, reflects the Firm’s market commentary and internally generated stock ideas, along with economic, industry and market outlooks. In virtually all cases, stocks mentioned in Select Research offerings are listed on the NYSE or the NASDAQ. Publications in this category include the weekly The Goldman Guide Podcast and companion Data PDF, Market Monitor blogs, Special Reports, and non-sponsored company reports. Goldman Small Cap Research analysts are neither long nor short stocks mentioned in this newsletter. Founder Rob Goldman is currently long cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Shiba Inu and may publish commentary or news regarding these securities. .We were not compensated nor do we expect to be compensated for the feature of any stocks in The Goldman Guide.
Content produced under the Opportunity Research banner include reports, updates, sector spotlights, CEO Roundtable interviews, and reflect sponsored (paid) research. It is important to note that while we may track performance separately, we utilize many of the same coverage criteria in determining coverage of all stocks in both research formats. Please view the company’s individual disclosures for each engagement, which can be found in company-specific Opportunity Research reports, updates and articles. Goldman Small Cap Research has not been compensated for any content in this audio podcast and publication.
All information contained in this audio podcast and companion newsletter were provided by the companies mentioned via news releases, filings, and their websites or generated from our own due diligence. Economic, market data and charts are provided by a variety of sources and are cited upon publication. Stock performance data and information are derived from Yahoo! Finance, BarChart.com and other websites or sources, as noted. Our analysts are responsible only to the public, and are paid in advance to eliminate pecuniary interests, retain editorial control, and ensure independence.
The information used and statements of fact made have been obtained from sources considered reliable but we neither guarantee nor represent the completeness or accuracy. Goldman Small Cap Research did not make an independent investigation or inquiry as to the accuracy of any information provided by the Company, other firms, or other financial news outlets. Goldman Small Cap Research relied solely upon information provided by companies through filings, press releases, presentations, and through its own internal due diligence for accuracy and completeness. Such information and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. A Gold- man Small Cap Research company or industry report, update, article, blog, note, audio podcast, or newsletter is not intended as an offering, recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned or discussed. This podcast and publication do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. This podcast and publication newsletter do not provide all information material to an investor’s decision about whether or not ). make any investment. Any discussion of risks in this presentation is not a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of the risks mentioned. Neither Goldman Small Cap Research, nor its parent, is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the FINRA or with any state securities regulatory authority. Statements herein may contain forward-looking statements and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties affecting results.
Separate from the factual content of the content in the podcast or companion newsletter, we may from time to time include our own opinions about the companies profiled herein, their businesses, markets and opportunities. Any opinions we may offer about the companies are solely our own, and are made in reliance upon our rights under the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, and are provided solely for the general opinionated discussion of our readers. Our opinions should not be considered to be complete, precise, accurate, or current investment advice. Such information and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
ALL INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, OR REPRESENTATIONS OF ANY KIND. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMISSIBLE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW, TWO TRIANGLE CONSULTING GROUP, LLC WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR THE QUALI- TY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, RELIABILITY OR TIMELINESS OF THIS INFORMATION, OR FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES THAT MAY ARISE OUT OF THE USE OF THIS INFORMATION BY YOU OR ANYONE ELSE (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS, LOSS OF OPPORTUNITIES, TRADING LOSSES, AND DAMAGES THAT MAY RESULT FROM ANY INACCURACY OR INCOMPLETENESS OF THIS INFORMATION). TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, TWO TRIANGLE CONSULTING GROUP, LLC WILL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANYONE ELSE UNDER ANY TORT, CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE, STRICT LIABIL- ITY, PRODUCTS LIABILITY, OR OTHER THEORY WITH RESPECT TO THIS PRESENTATION OF INFOR- MATION.
For more information, visit our Disclaimer: www.goldmanresearch.com .