Wake Me Up When September Ends…?
|Written by GSCR Staff|
|Thursday, 03 September 2015 05:35|
The month has started off with a bang! Are we going to be singing the Green Day song in the tagline today all month long?
September has historically been a brutal month for the Dow as illustrated by the article from MarketWatch below.
In Monday’s Guide we pointed out since 2000 the S&P 500 has dropped a average of - 1.4% but that we believe that small caps are poised for a run despite what the pundits say. Having said that, some overall volatility will require some patience and some short term trading opportunities to profit from as a bonus.
One of our Market Monitor picks from February 2014 has been a dog for the most part and a real, in keeping with the summer terms, rollercoaster. Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ – QTWW - $1.56) is down over 80% since our pick and has been up and down over the last two years especially, as illustrated below.
As the POTUS renames an American geographic landmark and attends yet another ‘global warming’ aka ‘climate change’ convention in Alaska, QTWW fits right in. The Company develops, produces, and sells compressed natural gas fuel storage tanks and packaged fuel storage systems for heavy, medium, and light-duty trucks; and passenger vehicles in the United States, Canada, Germany, Australia, India, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Taiwan. Its products include high pressure gaseous fuel tanks, packaged fuel system modules, gaseous fuel electronic vehicle control systems and software, hybrid control and motor control software systems, inverters and motors, and engines/generators and fuel cell power. The Company also designs, develops, engineers, and validates fuel storage systems for natural gas vehicle applications ranging from passenger vehicles to heavy duty trucks; and integrates electric motors, inverters, generators, and electronic vehicle control components into hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles.
There are two ways to look at QTWW from a stock perspective. First, from the technical view, a relative bottom appears to have been hit at $1.12 on August 21st. Additionally, the short float under 4% indicates a solid long position here.
On the fundamental or growth side, the Company continues to innovate and introduce new and improved products and land contracts. Analysts’ estimates for top line growth are for an average of 32% higher for 2015 and 2016 over 2014.
In classic financial advisor ‘speak’, the stock has become a long term play, if you are a growth and macroeconomic investor and have taken huge losses over the last two years. Additionally, a short term trade could be in order. We think QTWW climbs to $3.00 by the by the end of the year.
Another indication of summer’s end is the start of college football tonight. For the first time ever the AP poll has a consensus pre-season number one, the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Beware of groupthink! History says Ohio State will not repeat. The Bucks have been preseason number one seven previous times and won no national titles in any of those years. Our pick for the ‘Final Four’ is TCU, Ohio State, Auburn, and Clemson. We have TCU winning it all.
Have a great day!
Goldman Small Cap Research is not affiliated in any way with Goldman Sachs & Co.
It is important to note that while we may track performance separately, we utilize the same coverage criteria in determining coverage of all stocks in both research formats. Please view the company’s individual disclosures for each engagement, which can be found in each company-specific report. All information contained in this blog, newsletter and in our reports were provided by the Companies or generated from our own due diligence. Our analysts are responsible only to the public, and are paid in advance to eliminate pecuniary interests, retain editorial control, and ensure independence. Analysts are compensated on a per report basis and not on the basis of his/her recommendations.
The information used and statements of fact made have been obtained from sources considered reliable but we neither guarantee nor represent the completeness or accuracy. Goldman Small Cap Research did not make an independent investigation or inquiry as to the accuracy of any information provided by the Company, or other firms. Goldman Small Cap Research relied solely upon information provided by the Company through its filings, press releases, presentations, and through its own internal due diligence for accuracy and completeness. Such information and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. A Goldman Small CapResearch blog, report, note, or newsletter is not intended as an offering, recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned or discussed.
This blog does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. This blog does not provide all information material to an investor’s decision about whether or not to make any investment. Any discussion of risks in this presentation is not a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of the risks mentioned. Neither Goldman Small Cap Research, nor its parent, is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with FINRA or with any state securities regulatory authority.
ALL INFORMATION IN THIS BLOG, REPORT OR NEWSLETTER IS PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, OR REPRESENTATIONS OF ANY KIND. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMISSIBLE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW, TWO TRIANGLECONSULTING GROUP, LLC WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR THE QUALITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, RELIABILITY OR TIMELINESS OF THIS INFORMATION, OR FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES THAT MAY ARISE OUT OF THE USE OF THIS INFORMATION BY YOU OR ANYONE ELSE (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS, LOSS OF OPPORTUNITIES, TRADING LOSSES, AND DAMAGES THAT MAY RESULT FROM ANY INACCURACY OR INCOMPLETENESS OF THIS INFORMATION). TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, TWO TRIANGLECONSULTING GROUP, LLC WILL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANYONE ELSE UNDER ANY TORT, CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE, STRICT LIABILITY, PRODUCTS LIABILITY, OR OTHER THEORY WITH RESPECT TO THIS PRESENTATION OF INFORMATION.
For more information, visit our Disclaimer: www.goldmanresearch.com
Leave your comments