The Goldman Guide: A Dirty Secret |
| Written by Rob Goldman | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
In this week's edition of The Goldman Guide we tell you a secret regarding institutions and companies this time of year, along with where the institutional money has gone, and where it is headed right now  Download This Report in PDF
The Goldman Guide
INSIDE OUR 10 MIN PODCAST:
INDICES & CATALYSTS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY FIGURES
A Dirty SecretThis is the last week of the first quarter, 2023. Believe it or not, this is a very important time period. There is a dirty secret that most retail investors do not know. That secret is the fact that this period is essentially a scramble period for publicly traded companies and for institutional investors. Actually, the scramble period likely began in earnest for many institutions a week ago. Institutional investors sell big losers, especially those that are big names around this time of year. Why? Because when quarterly reports are issued next month, they show top ten holdings, and in some cases, all holdings. And the fund managers don’t want to look foolish. I know. I managed a mutual fund and small cap money---but I never engaged in such acts. You’d be surprised how many do. The managers are afraid of redemptions due to poor performance—and poor decision making, in general. And the companies? Well let’s just say that it is common knowledge that as quarters wind down, leaders bang the phones to try and get sales in the door that are pending. They work their asses off to ship as much merchandise as possible out the door, get purchase orders, or new service contracts signed etc. On the expense side if they can defer expenses, they do. Why? They don’t want to miss quarterly estimates and have the stock crater. On the investing side, portfolio managers want to have exposure to YTD winners and in some cases will buy new ones if they don’t have them. They also don’t want to sit on an inordinate amount of cash, given how that looks. So, you tend to see investments in ETFs, if applicable, or big names. Why? Listen to our podcast to find out… The Market Today
Notable NumbersAAII Sentiment Survey (figures rounded)
Getting close to the Bearish threshold of 50%
INVESTING CONSIDERATIONSWhat does the fund flows data tells us? And how do FAANG relate to it? What do the underlying new ETF investments and redemptions portend? Is the major hurt on the banking sector over, for now? Should I invest like an institutional investor? Will inflation or company earnings affect near-term performance? WHERE MONEY IS HEADED (AND NOT)Big ETFs remain in play Anything that has letters: AI FAANG---but not all Technology, Oil & Gas and not ESG Away from VIX and VXX for a spell Avoid financials, biotech, consumer discretionary---for the moment What will go up must go down first Thoughts on our ideas? Shoot me an email: [email protected]. 1498 Reisterstown Road, Suite 286 Baltimore Maryland 21208 Phone: 410.609.7100 The Goldman Guide: Background: Originally launched in May 2010, and re-introduced in January 2023 after a hiatus from 2016-2022, The Goldman Guide is a free weekly audio podcast and newsletter produced by Goldman Small Cap Research and is written by Founder Rob Goldman with contributions from the GSCR contributor team. This non-sponsored investment newsletter seeks to provide investors with market, economic, political and equity-specific insights via an action-oriented, straight to the point approach. No companies mentioned in this newsletter are current sponsored research clients of the Company or its parent, With key excep Disclaimer This audio podcast and companion newsletter were prepared for informational purposes only. Goldman Small Cap Research, (a division of Two Triangle Consulting Group, LLC) produces non-sponsored and sponsored (paid) investment research. Goldman Small Cap Research is not affiliated in any way with Goldman Sachs & Co. The Firm’s non-sponsored research publications category, Select Research, reflects the Firm’s market commentary and internally generated stock ideas, along with economic, industry and market outlooks. In virtually all cases, stocks mentioned in Select Research offerings are listed on the NYSE or the NASDAQ. Publications in this category include the weekly The Goldman Guide Podcast and companion Data PDF, Market Monitor blogs, Special Reports, and non-sponsored company reports. Goldman Small Cap Research analysts are neither long nor short stocks mentioned in this newsletter. Founder Rob Goldman is currently long cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Shiba Inu and may publish commentary or news regarding these securities. .We were not compensated nor do we expect to be compensated for the feature of any stocks in The Goldman Guide. Content produced under the Opportunity Research banner include reports, updates, sector spotlights, CEO Roundtable interviews, and reflect sponsored (paid) research. It is important to note that while we may track performance separately, we utilize many of the same coverage criteria in determining coverage of all stocks in both research formats. Please view the company’s individual disclosures for each engagement, which can be found in company-specific Opportunity Research reports, updates and articles. Goldman Small Cap Research has not been compensated for any content in this audio podcast and publication. All information contained in this audio podcast and companion newsletter were provided by the companies mentioned via news releases, filings, and their websites or generated from our own due diligence. Economic, market data and charts are provided by a variety of sources and are cited upon publication. Stock performance data and information are derived from Yahoo! Finance, BarChart.com and other websites or sources, as noted. Our analysts are responsible only to the public, and are paid in advance to eliminate pecuniary interests, retain editorial control, and ensure independence. The information used and statements of fact made have been obtained from sources considered reliable but we neither guarantee nor represent the completeness or accuracy. Goldman Small Cap Research did not make an independent investigation or inquiry as to the accuracy of any information provided by the Company, other firms, or other financial news outlets. Goldman Small Cap Research relied solely upon information provided by companies through filings, press releases, presentations, and through its own internal due diligence for accuracy and completeness. Such information and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. A Gold- man Small Cap Research company or industry report, update, article, blog, note, audio podcast, or newsletter is not intended as an offering, recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned or discussed. This podcast and publication do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. This podcast and publication newsletter do not provide all information material to an investor’s decision about whether or not ). make any investment. Any discussion of risks in this presentation is not a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of the risks mentioned. Neither Goldman Small Cap Research, nor its parent, is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the FINRA or with any state securities regulatory authority. Statements herein may contain forward-looking statements and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties affecting results. Separate from the factual content of the content in the podcast or companion newsletter, we may from time to time include our own opinions about the companies profiled herein, their businesses, markets and opportunities. Any opinions we may offer about the companies are solely our own, and are made in reliance upon our rights under the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, and are provided solely for the general opinionated discussion of our readers. Our opinions should not be considered to be complete, precise, accurate, or current investment advice. Such information and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. ALL INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, OR REPRESENTATIONS OF ANY KIND. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMISSIBLE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW, TWO TRIANGLE CONSULTING GROUP, LLC WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR THE QUALI- TY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, RELIABILITY OR TIMELINESS OF THIS INFORMATION, OR FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES THAT MAY ARISE OUT OF THE USE OF THIS INFORMATION BY YOU OR ANYONE ELSE (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS, LOSS OF OPPORTUNITIES, TRADING LOSSES, AND DAMAGES THAT MAY RESULT FROM ANY INACCURACY OR INCOMPLETENESS OF THIS INFORMATION). TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, TWO TRIANGLE CONSULTING GROUP, LLC WILL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANYONE ELSE UNDER ANY TORT, CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE, STRICT LIABIL- ITY, PRODUCTS LIABILITY, OR OTHER THEORY WITH RESPECT TO THIS PRESENTATION OF INFOR- MATION. For more information, visit our Disclaimer: www.goldmanresearch.com . |
tions such as Top 50 cryptocurrencies, some of which are noted as current holdings of Founder Goldman, all companies or investment ideas mentioned in this audio podcast and companion publication are publicly traded stocks listed either on the NYSE or the NASDAQ. Goldman Small Cap Research leadership bios and experience can be found on our website: