The Goldman Guide: 3.19.23. Time to Be a Contrarian?
|Written by Rob Goldman|
In this week's edition of The Goldman Guide, we provide guidance, analysis and tips on what to expect and therefore ideas of what to do during the current financial crisis.
The Goldman Guide
INSIDE OUR 10 MIN PODCAST:
INDICES & CATALYSTS
Time to Be a Contrarian?
Last week was remarkable for a few reasons. Thanks to the out-of-the-blue financial crisis, trading-wise we started off in one direction, and basically switched directions each day. No one knew what was true, what was false. What shoe was dropping or staying on the proverbial foot. Big and really big were the temporary winners while small was mercilessly punished.
For you sports fans, big (or top seeded) were smacked in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament while small (or low seeded) won it in surprising fashion. Not that I am suggesting a parallel between events in sports and investing habits or strategies. However, taking a contrarian attitude versus a herd mentality can often be more rewarding for tactical or courageous investors and traders.
Stocks are still going to be driven by perception of the future impact of the current financial crisis, a mix of positive and negative steps, and importantly, sentiment regarding interest rates. Will this crisis prompt more or fewer interest rate hikes? Will they result in higher but fewer moves?
Last week illustrated a dichotomy between different classes of securities, including types of debt, types of crypto and types of equities. Success as a contrarian investor will center on one’s understanding and correct assessment of the situation, which we unfold in this week’s podcast. I am sure you will find out succinct and useful.
Have a good day!
The Market Today
AAII Sentiment Survey (figures rounded)
Bearish didn’t go to 50% but Bullish is at its lowest point in 6 months.
Were ETF inflows so large due to selloff in stocks and migration there or do they reflect opportunistic investors?
UBS buying Credit Suisse, the record amount of bank borrowing from the Fed, and risk in deposit runs from small banks could keep investors skittish?
In these times, is bigger “better and smaller foolish”, or is it an opportunity---since we already in a corrective phase?
Is there a reason why the Russell 2000 was so slammed and still at risk?
What do we make of crypto?
WHAT LIES AHEAD
ETFs: SPY vs IWM
The Plays of the Day: Ups and Downs, Big Banks, Mega Cap
The Plays of Tomorrow: Contrarian: Small Cap, Oil
Bullish Market in Q3 vs Q4?
Thoughts on our ideas? Shoot me an email: [email protected].
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