The Goldman Guide: 3.19.23. Time to Be a Contrarian? |
| Written by Rob Goldman | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In this week's edition of The Goldman Guide, we provide guidance, analysis and tips on what to expect and therefore ideas of what to do during the current financial crisis.  Download This Report in PDF
The Goldman Guide
INSIDE OUR 10 MIN PODCAST:
INDICES & CATALYSTS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY FIGURES
Time to Be a Contrarian?Last week was remarkable for a few reasons. Thanks to the out-of-the-blue financial crisis, trading-wise we started off in one direction, and basically switched directions each day. No one knew what was true, what was false. What shoe was dropping or staying on the proverbial foot. Big and really big were the temporary winners while small was mercilessly punished. For you sports fans, big (or top seeded) were smacked in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament while small (or low seeded) won it in surprising fashion. Not that I am suggesting a parallel between events in sports and investing habits or strategies. However, taking a contrarian attitude versus a herd mentality can often be more rewarding for tactical or courageous investors and traders. Stocks are still going to be driven by perception of the future impact of the current financial crisis, a mix of positive and negative steps, and importantly, sentiment regarding interest rates. Will this crisis prompt more or fewer interest rate hikes? Will they result in higher but fewer moves? Last week illustrated a dichotomy between different classes of securities, including types of debt, types of crypto and types of equities. Success as a contrarian investor will center on one’s understanding and correct assessment of the situation, which we unfold in this week’s podcast. I am sure you will find out succinct and useful. Have a good day! The Market Today
Notable NumbersAAII Sentiment Survey (figures rounded)
Bearish didn’t go to 50% but Bullish is at its lowest point in 6 months.
Investing Considerations… Were ETF inflows so large due to selloff in stocks and migration there or do they reflect opportunistic investors? UBS buying Credit Suisse, the record amount of bank borrowing from the Fed, and risk in deposit runs from small banks could keep investors skittish? In these times, is bigger “better and smaller foolish”, or is it an opportunity---since we already in a corrective phase? Is there a reason why the Russell 2000 was so slammed and still at risk? What do we make of crypto? WHAT LIES AHEADETFs: SPY vs IWM The Plays of the Day: Ups and Downs, Big Banks, Mega Cap The Plays of Tomorrow: Contrarian: Small Cap, Oil Bullish Market in Q3 vs Q4? Thoughts on our ideas? Shoot me an email: [email protected]. 1498 Reisterstown Road, Suite 286 Baltimore Maryland 21208 Phone: 410.609.7100 The Goldman Guide: Background: Originally launched in May 2010, and re-introduced in January 2023 after a hiatus from 2016-2022, The Goldman Guide is a free weekly audio podcast and newsletter produced by Goldman Small Cap Research and is written by Founder Rob Goldman with contributions from the GSCR contributor team. This non-sponsored investment newsletter seeks to provide investors with market, economic, political and equity-specific insights via an action-oriented, straight to the point approach. No companies mentioned in this newsletter are current sponsored research clients of the Company or its parent, With key excep Disclaimer This audio podcast and companion newsletter were prepared for informational purposes only. Goldman Small Cap Research, (a division of Two Triangle Consulting Group, LLC) produces non-sponsored and sponsored (paid) investment research. 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