|Written by Rob Goldman|
In this edition of The Goldman Guide we review where are in the (official bear) market, future potentialities, and a possible double bottom ahead for a very popular stock and company.
The Goldman Guide
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INDICES & CATALYSTS
|Current||Last Week||Long Term Avg|
With interest rate hikes set to be greater in number than previously forecasted and
With less confidence in stock performance, short term debt is the rage---as we suggested last week. One year Treasuries yield about 5% these days…
Definition of correction is index or stock declining 10% or more (but below 20%) from recent high.
Not yet in market corrective phase inside of what we believe is current bear market. YTD highs occurred first week of February 2023.
Might be considered a corrective phase for some of the biggest and most popular stocks.
Bear markets typically reflect declines of 20% or more for indices, or in some cases, industries.
Contrary to popular belief, corrections rarely always lead to bear markets, according to Schwab Financial Research.
Bear market length and declines aren’t always hugely painful.
Our Take: Inflation problems could lead to market correction but if Fed does its job, it won’t lead to a new bear market and 4Q of 2023 could lead to the start of a bull run. S&P 500 went into bear territory on 9/23/22 officially, or 156 days ago. Peaked since then at 14% gain in early February 2023. If we break out of bear territory in late 2023, it nearly matches average bear market duration. Sticking to our January outlook. Rough year, strong ending.
Chewy, Inc. (NYSE: CHWY - $39.56)
50 DMA: $42.49
200 DMA: $38.15
After hitting mid-$34 range in early January and in late 2022, stock ran. If CHWY drifts back to that level could repeat the move. Typically, solid seasons ahead for business.
Thoughts on our ideas? Shoot me an email: [email protected].
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