|Written by Rob Goldman|
In the latest edition of The Goldman Guide, we discuss what is really moving stocks, what could happen around the corner, an interesting change in strategy, and a peek into the retail segment, ahead of next week's earnings.
The Goldman Guide
INSIDE OUR 10 MIN PODCAST:
INDICES & CATALYSTS
Who is at Fault?
I should have guessed. I should have known better. About a month ago I noted how it seemed like the stock market was behaving like it was The January Effect—when retail investors helped drive stocks.
When news from CNBC and other sources noted that in the month of January retail investors poured in $1.5 billion a day into the market, that answered the question that was plaguing me/ Why were stocks performing so well across the board? It may have also played an early role in the crypto resurgence. So, I thank you for it. I wish it could continue, but, oh well.
Look, there is a reason why the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is used as a corollary for the market. There is an historical inverse relationship between retail actions/sentiment and long term retail performance. Not to be a jerk, but it gives me more confidence that our call last week saying the market is on its way down now was on point. Even JP Morgan put out a note saying the same thing last week, as did others. Better economic performance translates into higher inflation, and more or greater interest rate increases. All bad events for equities.
To be clear, just because we expect that the market is embarking on a negative swoon doesn’t mean that opportunities do not exist. They do! We—and I mean all of us---have to be discerning, utilize stop-losses, monitor events, the economy, and peer group trends of our favorites, very closely. Enjoy the data, the featured industry, the podcast---and the day off.
Have a good week!
The Stock Market Today
AAII Sentiment Survey (figures rounded)
Question: Is it worth the play? One year Treasuries yield about 5% these days.
Our Featured Industry: Retail
ONE OF BEST PERFORMING INDUSTRIES YTD
COMPANIES BEGIN TO REPORT IN EARNEST THIS WEEK
WILL WE SEE SAME TYPE OF SURPRISES?
HOW WILL MARKET REACT?
KEY NAMES SUCH AS HOME DEPOT, CHEESECAKE FACTORY, MANY OTHERS-HD VERY IMPORTANT BELLWETHER A FEW ECONOMIC SEGMENTS
MANY STOCKS FAIRLY VALUED, DECENT TECHNICALS, BUT NOT STRONG
CONCERNED INVESTORS MAY CONSIDER SELLING CALLS ON POSITIONS
FOOTWEAR HAS NEARLY 3X VALUATION OF APPAREL, ACCESSORIES
THERE MAY BE VALUE IN CERTAIN SPECIALTY STORE STOCKS, BUT MAY TRADE NARROW RANGE PRIOR TO HIGHER MOVES LATER IN THE YEAR
UNDER ARMOUR (NYSE:UA) LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BREAK DOWN BELOW 200 DMA OF $8.42—IT’S AT $9.31 AND FUNDAMENTALLY TROUBLED
Thoughts on UA, HD, or Treasuries? Shoot me an email: [email protected].
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